Precision Development (PxD) Leads Message Design for Historic AI Weather Forecasting Program Reaching 38 Million Indian Farmers

NEW DELHI, India – Precision Development (PxD), in partnership with the Ministry of Agriculture, led the message design, farmer testing, and supported dissemination for India’s first-of-its-kind government-led AI weather forecasting program that reached 38 million farmers across 13 states during the 2025 monsoon season—the largest targeted deployment of AI weather forecasts to farmers anywhere in the world.

This groundbreaking initiative marks a major leap forward in applying cutting-edge AI technology to directly benefit smallholder farmers. Working alongside partners at the Human Centered Weather Forecast Initiative at the University of Chicago and the Development Innovation Lab – India, we collaborated with the Ministry to harness the power of open-access AI models that have transformed weather science. The science behind this forecasting was recently featured in The Wall Street Journal: “Farmers in India Are Tracking Monsoon Season With the Help of AI”. 

Yet moving from forecast to last-mile delivery requires far more than scientific innovation.

PxD supported the Ministry in bridging this gap by testing multiple rounds of farmer messaging to ensure advice was comprehensible and actionable, identifying appropriate dissemination channels, and supporting implementation.

A key feature was working with farmers to zero in on their needs and what types of messages would be most useful to act upon. Even the most accurate forecast can fall flat if it’s not communicated clearly. This project showed the importance of co-designing messages with farmers.

This monsoon season was unusual: rains stopped for close to three weeks mid-season. The AI forecasts accurately predicted this pause, enabling farmers like Parasnath Tiwari from Madhya Pradesh to prepare earlier and switch to more lucrative crops because the message gave him confidence that the season would be long enough.

“Before this, I mostly relied on my own experience and local knowledge to know when the monsoon would arrive,” says Tiwari. “The forecast about the arrival of the monsoon was accurate…I have increased trust in the forecast, and I will rely on the information shared by scientists in the future.”

What made this program unique:

• Farmer-centric design: We worked directly with farmers to ensure messages were understood and actionable, translating complex AI-generated forecasts into clear, timely guidance for agricultural decision-making
• Emphasis on accuracy: The AI models deployed were shown to clearly outperform other available forecasts at predicting monsoon onset in India. This year, the model correctly predicted a critical 20-day pause in the northward progression of the monsoon, enabling farmers to adapt their planting strategies in real time. 
• Unprecedented scale: Dissemination of weekly forecast updates via SMS to 38 million farmers – the largest farmer-focused AI communication initiative of its kind.

“Disseminating AI weather forecasts has an incredibly high return on investment, likely generating more than $100 for farmers for each dollar invested by the government,” says University of Chicago economist Michael Kremer, a 2019 Nobel laureate and co-founder of Precision Development. “India is leading the way in using AI to improve people’s lives across many sectors, including agriculture.” 

As Professor Kremer noted in the recent program review with Additional Secretary Dr. Pramod Kumar Meherda and Joint Secretary Sanjay Kumar Agarwal:

“This is a huge achievement by the Ministry of Agriculture, benefiting millions of farmers and putting India at the cutting edge of addressing the needs of farmers. The Ministry’s program is a model for how to put people first in the age of AI.”

By combining advanced AI weather models with our deep expertise in farmer-centered communication design, we’re helping transform how climate information reaches those who need it most.

As climate variability increases, initiatives like this demonstrate how AI can be harnessed not just for technological advancement but also for meaningful impact on the lives of smallholder farmers, who form the backbone of global food systems.

“This initiative demonstrates how strategic partnerships between governments, research institutions, and scaling organizations like PxD can deliver cutting-edge technology to those who need it most,” said Niriksha Shetty, CEO of Precision Development (PxD). “Our approach ensures that technological breakthroughs translate into real-world impact for smallholder farmers.“