As climate change increasingly disrupts agricultural patterns, farmers face growing challenges in managing their crops and resources. Reliable and timely weather information is crucial in making informed decisions that can optimize productivity and reduce losses. In response to these challenges, PxD, in partnership with the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare (MoA&FW), Government of India, and the Development Innovation Lab India (DIL-India) at the University of Chicago Trust, has launched a transformative initiative aimed at delivering high-quality weather forecasts to inform farmer decision-making. This initiative is designed to equip farmers with the tools they need to adapt to changes in weather patterns and strengthen their resilience.

Climate Challenges and the Role of Weather Forecasts

Climate change is disrupting weather patterns, making rainfall less predictable, and putting agricultural livelihoods at risk. In the absence of reliable forecasts, farmers face challenges in planning their growing seasons, leaving them more vulnerable to losses.

Studies highlight how farmers adjust their practices in response to receiving forecasts about the timing of the monsoon. In Telangana, farmers for whom the forecast was “good news” (i.e., the growing season would be longer than expected) leveraged the extended growing season, prompting them to increase cultivated land, introduce new crops, and boost pre-harvest investments. Conversely, farmers for whom the forecast was “bad news” (i.e., the growing season would be shorter than expected) adjusted their strategies to minimize potential losses by reducing the amount of land they cultivated. Another study found that accurate forecast information enables farmers to optimize their inputs, increase yields, and reduce costs. 

With the low cost of digital dissemination, delivering forecasts at scale is effective and affordable, offering significant potential to strengthen agricultural resilience.

Pilot Study Results: Monsoon 2024

During the Monsoon 2024 season, a pilot program disseminated weather forecasts across five Indian states — Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, and Chhattisgarh. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) provided total seasonal rainfall forecasts, which were sent via SMS to 8.6 million farmers in May and June. Additionally, monsoon onset forecasts, developed by a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), were shared with 0.85 million farmers in Telangana. These long-range forecasts, generated 40 days in advance, predict the likely start date of the monsoon season within a 9-day range, offering farmers a valuable early window to plan their agricultural activities effectively.

Dissemination was conducted using the Ministry’s existing m-Kisan system, which facilitated the distribution of two rounds of SMS to the 9.45 million farmers mentioned above.

Phone surveys with a sub-sample of farmers showed that 89% of farmers expressed interest in continuing to receive forecasts, and 90% found the information useful for making planting decisions.